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Friday, 27 January 2012 14:14

Interest Rate Cuts Improve Outlook for Brazil's Property and Construction Sectors

Written by  Scott Johnson
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Brazil has embarked on a trend of lower interest rates, creating an expectation that improved credit conditions will bolster domestic demand for homes. Last week the central bank cut the benchmark rate to 10.5 percent, commenting that future easing is likely to bring the rate below 10 percent.

The rate decreases come as Brazil's government makes other moves to expand credit to consumers. In early January, the government created a new line of credit to finance home improvements. Under the new scheme, 10-year loans will be extended at a rate of 12 percent, well below prevailing bank rates of 25-45 percent. The new policy is consistent with the government's broader efforts to stimulate credit expansion through all economic levels.

The equity markets have been responding positively. So far this year, 36 percent of inflows to emerging market equity funds have gone to Brazil. Homebuilders have been major beneficiaries, as investors react to the interest rate trends as well as the overall investment environment. According to a JP Morgan analyst, "We see Brazil as the country with the most policy flexibility in the emerging market universe, with the capacity to continue to cut interest rates and provide for fiscal stimulus if growth were to weaken."

The prospects for continued credit expansion appear quite good. With mortgage lending at a relatively low level from a global perspective, and with banks operating at responsible leverage ratios, the credit markets have plenty of room to grow. The Rousseff government has made it a clear priority to improve loan availability, increase home ownership, and carry forward the strong growth of the middle class.

For property investors, interest rate and credit trends indicate a sustained upward trajectory for Brazil's real estate values. 

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Scott Johnson

Scott Johnson

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